The study also looked at electric household heat pumps, and found they too produce lower emissions than fossil-fuel alternatives in 95% of the world. Heat pumps could reduce global CO2 emissions in 2050 by up to 0.8 gigatons per year – roughly equal to Germany’s current annual emissions.
“We started this work a few years ago, and policy-makers in the UK and abroad have shown a lot of interest in the results,” said Dr Jean-Francois Mercure, of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter. “The answer is clear: to reduce carbon emissions, we should choose electric cars and household heat pumps over fossil-fuel alternatives.”
“In other words, the idea that electric vehicles or electric heat pumps could increase emissions is essentially a myth,” said Dr Florian Knobloch, of the Environmental Science Department at the University of Nijmegen (The Netherlands), the lead author of the study. “We've seen a lot of discussion about this recently, with lots of disinformation going around. Here is a definitive study that can dispel those myths. We have run the numbers for all around the world, looking at a whole range of cars and heating systems. Even in our worst-case scenario, there would be a reduction in emissions in almost all cases. This insight should be very useful for policy-makers.”
The study examined the current and future emissions of different types of vehicles and home heating options worldwide. It divided the world into 59 regions to account for differences in power generation and technology.
In 53 of these regions – including the US, China and most of Europe – the findings show electric cars and heat pumps are already less emission-intensive than fossil-fuel alternatives. These 53 regions represent 95% of global transport and heating demand and, with energy production decarbonizing worldwide, Dr Mercure said the “last few debatable cases will soon disappear”.
The researchers carried out a life-cycle assessment in which they not only calculated greenhouse gas emissions generated when using cars and heating systems, but also in the production chain and waste processing.
“Taking into account emissions from manufacturing and ongoing energy use, it’s clear that we should encourage the switch to electric cars and household heat pumps without any regrets,” Dr Knobloch concluded.
The paper, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, is entitled: “Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time.”
The study does not address non-exhaust emissions from automobiles, such as brake dust and tire dust, which can be 1000-times worse and tend to be higher for heavier vehicles such as SUVs and electric cars, which tend to be heavier than their standard gasoline or diesel engine counterparts, according to a study by Emissions Analytics.
Stephen Moore has been with PlasticsToday and its preceding publications Modern Plastics and Injection Molding since 1992, throughout this time based in the Asia Pacific region, including stints in Japan, Australia and his current location Singapore. His current beat focuses on automotive. Stephen is an avid folding bicycle rider, often taking is bike on overseas business trips, and proud dachshund owner.